Predicting the Future of Distance Education

About the Episode: In this episode of the EduData podcast, we explore the evolving landscape of online learning in higher education and its trajectory in the post-pandemic era. While the pandemic has accelerated the adoption of online education, its long-term impact and potential future trends remain subjects of discussion and analysis.

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Key Takeaways

• Pandemic’s Catalyst Effect: Online-only enrollment surged during the pandemic, cutting the percentage of students with no online education in half in 2020. While these numbers have decreased since then, they remain higher than pre-pandemic levels.
• Hybrid Learning Growth: The share of students enrolled in some but not all online courses has stabilized, signaling the normalization of hybrid learning as part of the higher ed landscape.
• Shifts in Digital Accessibility: Increased broadband access in rural areas and technological advancements have made online learning more feasible for wider audiences, reshaping education delivery models.
• Demographic Impacts: Adult learners and microcredential seekers continue to drive online education growth, necessitating tailored strategies for different student segments.
• Future Projections: The percentage of students not enrolled in any online learning is expected to stabilize between 45% and 55% over the next decade, reflecting a balance between online convenience and in-person experiences.

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Episode Summary

How Has Online Education Evolved?

Drawing on IPEDS data from 2012 to 2022, Jamie and Timothy explore the steady rise of online learning prior to the pandemic, which grew by 1–2% annually. Then came 2020, when the percentage of students with no online classes plummeted from 64% to just 26.6%. While the immediate post-pandemic years have seen a rebound to 47%, the conversation centers on whether this shift represents a new normal or a temporary adjustment.

Timothy highlights how the pandemic forced institutions to rapidly develop online curriculums, making online offerings more accessible and mainstream. Jamie adds that rural broadband expansion during COVID-19 was another key factor that made online education viable for students in areas where it was previously unavailable.

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What Will Online Education Look Like in the Future?

The hosts discuss possible future trajectories, predicting that online learning will stabilize at levels significantly higher than those seen in 2019. They also note a generational shift—while adult learners and working professionals increasingly prefer online options, Gen Z students may lean toward in-person experiences due to “digital exhaustion.” Hybrid models, where courses combine in-person and online components, are poised to dominate as institutions adapt to diverse learner needs.

Jamie points out the importance of adapting to changing economic demands, such as the growth of hands-on, trade-based education, which often requires in-person instruction. Timothy underscores the value of segmenting data to better understand how different student demographics interact with online learning.

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What Does This Mean for Higher Education Professionals?

The hosts stress the importance of breaking down student data by demographics, such as age and enrollment type, to make better-informed decisions about program offerings. They encourage higher ed professionals to embrace a flexible mindset, recognizing that the future of education will likely involve a mix of in-person and online experiences tailored to individual needs.

From leveraging AI for personalized learning experiences to addressing the challenges of the “enrollment cliff,” institutions must prioritize adaptability. As Timothy notes, understanding what students need and delivering it through the right medium will be essential to long-term success.

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About the Show: The EduData podcast is your no-fluff guide to the data driving higher education. Forget about data silos and disconnected stats—we bring you straight into the heart of the numbers that matter. With sharp commentary and rigorous research, our hosts break down complex data points into actionable insights you can use. Whether you're an administrator, educator, or just a higher ed enthusiast, EduData is your key to unlocking the data behind the academia.

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About The Enrollify Podcast Network:
The EduData Podcast is a part of the Enrollify Podcast Network. If you like this podcast, chances are you’ll like other Enrollify shows too!
Our podcast network is growing by the month, and we’ve got a plethora of marketing, enrollment, and higher ed technology shows that are jam-packed with stories, ideas, and frameworks, all designed to empower you to be a better higher ed professional. Our shows help higher ed marketers and admissions professionals find their next big idea and feature a selection of the industry’s best as your hosts. Learn from Bryan Gross, Eddie Francis, Jenny Li Fowler, Allison Turcio, Dayana Kibilds, and so many others of your favorite leaders in higher ed. Enrollify is made possible by Element451 — the next-generation AI student engagement platform helping institutions create meaningful and personalized interactions with students. Learn more at Element451.com.